Caution! Vaccine overload ahead

MASS PRODUCING VACCINE TO MEET EXPECTED POPULATION DEMAND? A COLOSSAL MISTAKE DESTINED TO SERVE NO PURPOSE AND END UP IN HUGE LOSSES

Mathematical calculations add up on paper and figures seem to tell a clear story. At last count, 3% of India’s population has been vaccinated so far. So,  97% remain to get the jab. If all authorized companies manufacture vaccines at the rate of so many million per day, then so many lakh people will get the jab in so many months. By so and so date the entire country, or at least 80% or 75% or even 60 % will be vaccinated and protected by so and so date.

The logic looks practical and realistic on paper, but let me say with conviction today- IT’S A LOAD OF BULLSHIT. And I will explain why.

We see some eminent doctors on TV day in, and day out, telling us that the vaccine is safe and that we need to take it. They are absolutely right in theory as we stand today. The pandemic is killing people left and right. Families are infected and the population is getting infected because covid#2 is much more contagious as compared to Covid#1. So given the fact that in most cases, the vaccine protects against the virus, you and I should take the jab. Again, we are on firm ground, the logic is sound.

So what is happening today, is absolutely right. The government is ramping up production, states are asking for vaccines, many are getting less than their need and the Modi government is being hauled over the coals by opposition for not being able to provide sufficient number of jabs in quick time. Again, the logic is sound, the noises are correct; the government is doing the right thing in ramping up production right now.  But here’s where the problem begins.

The calculation in the short run is good but in the long run, say 6 months from now, the government may end up with egg on its face and vaccine companies may run into huge losses and vaccine wastage, which is already happening will peak to unacceptable levels.

WARNING SIGNALS

India is a country that today, has the largest, and probably the most diverse population in terms of religious, social, ethnical and linguistic orientation. Also, the levels of education and literacy differ widely across the country. The number of hospitals, clinics, medically trained staffers and doctors available and active are miniscule in comparison to the sheer size of the population. There is already vaccine hesitancy due to so many reasons-some logical, some not so logical and some-idiotic.

The vaccinations are newly researched aimed at containing a virus which is new and unprecedented. The virus itself is breaking up into newer strains and spawning multicolored fungi-Black, White and Yellow. Trials and tests have been conducted and responsible organizations, including W.H.O agree it is safe but which strain it will protect against and which strain it won’t is anybody’s guess.

Real people are not robots or zombies. Every person is unique and no two people are alike physiologically and psychologically.  Somebody has acidity, somebody has hypertension, somebody has sugar problem and somebody has liver problem. These are just examples I have given and if you get detailed medical certificates of 100 random people in your building or compound today, you will be confused as to which person is healthier than which one. Now we come to scores of people who have allergies of some sort or the other also. Therefore, if I advise them to allow a new experimental vaccine against a disease that they may not have, to be injected into their bloodstream by a doctor or nurse they may or may not know, take a guess as to how many of them will say “No, thank you?”

There are patriarchal families who have one final authority in all aspects. If He says yes, its yes, if He says no, it is no.  What if He suffers from vaccine hesitancy? The whole family will not take the vaccine –period.

Then there are those clerics and religious heads that influence entire populations of areas or religious orientations. The Baba Ramdev versus allopathy war is a clear reflection of a populace split across the middle taking one side or another. This happens in micro levels of cities, villages, talukas and districts too. So if some Maulana says that Modi has made this vaccine so that Muslims can become impotent, chances are a huge portion of people will believe this and will also ensure their families, especially the women don’t get the jab. We have already heard news of medical staff getting assaulted when they visited a certain Muslim dominated area to administer some shot with good intent because of precisely this apprehension. So given the hesitation levels prevailing how many people will actually take the shot when the company has produced it and sent it? The vaccination itself has a shelf life and a very short one once it is opened for the actual jab to be administered. So if a company supplies 100 vaccinations because the population of the place has 100 potential receivers, what happens if only 30 turn up because of the reasons I have mentioned earlier? On paper, the calculation is perfectly right, the head count is correct, but practically it is 70% farce.

THE REALITY WE ARE BLIND TO

Now let us add other factors. Be damn sure vaccination hesitancy will increase in direct proportion to the reduction of risk. Corona# 2 is already receding. When this becomes negligible, how many of those who were fearful of shaking hands with the neighbor yesterday willingly go for a jab today? Especially if he has to pay for it too?

The government has been pushed into a corner politically and does not dare to consider all this and change policy. So vaccinations are being manufactured in huge numbers anticipating administration to 135 crore population of the country, or at least, a large percentage. But when the stocks come in, in huge quantities, there will be a trickle of people actually coming forward to take the jab. This is bound to happen.

Do the math.

 

 

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